Sunday, October 12, 2008

A sign the financial crisis may be receding

This is very interesting news about those damnable credit default swaps that, we've been told, would make the Great Depression look like the opening act for Global Meltdown 2008.

We'll see as the markets open Monday. My guess is that the overall crisis, bad as it is, will subside, and in a relatively orderly way, this week. Credit is indeed the lubricant for the global economy -- but it is not the economy itself. Consumers continue to consume, and that's not going to stop (apart from the temporary suspension of buying cruises and $150 bottles of perfume). Producers are ready to continue to meet market demands. If producers can't get credit from conventional avenues, they will, driven by demand, find other means. Supply and demand is a more powerful market force than credit, especially in an economy where there's no shortage of capital, like right now.

The problem is that in the current global climate of panic/fear, capital is being hoarded.

We'll see how long trillions of dollars, euros and other currencies remain hoarded when demand and supply predominate. I think not very long.

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